Nuclear Weapons

Check this out on the US nuclear weapons program -

http://www.acq.osd.mil/ncbdp/nm/nm_book_5_11/index.htm

Questions Facing the Global Economy

These are from the WSJ CEO Council

1.  How can the most important bilateral relationship in today's world, between the US and China, be put on a stronger footing?
2.  How can the innovation necessary for strong growth be both promoted and protected in global commerce?
3.  How can the US, whose consumers have powered the global economy in recent decades, shift to more of an export orientation?
4.  How should the global competition for natural resources be managed in the years ahead?
5.  How can the most pressing global health problems be addressed effectively?

These are top priorities for the world's policy makers, and things we ought to be paying attention to as a class.

Video for the Last Question on modern-day Chinese culture

See:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XbIZqg4v7w

Watch the whole 6 minutes!

World History Plan v02

World History Plan

10/31 – 4.3 “National Unification & the National State”

11/7 – 5.3 “The National State and Democracy”

11/14 – 7.1 “The Decline of the Qing Dynasty”

11/21 – Movie (2 days, China History Video)

11/28 – 7.2 “Revolution in China”

12/5 – 8.1 “The Road to World War One”

12/12 – undecided

12/19 – break

12/26 – break

1/3 – Dead Week (review 1^st semester)

1/9 – Finals Week

1/17 – 8.2 “The War”

1/23 – 8.3 “The Russian Revolution”

1/30 – 8.4 “End of the War”

2/6 – 9.2 “The Rise of Dictatorial Regimes

2/13 – 9.3 “Hitler and Nazi Germany”

2/21 – “Beautiful Life” & Discussion

2/27 – 11.1 “Paths to War”

3/5 – 11.2 “The Course of World War II”

3/12 – 11.3 “The New World Order and the Holocaust”

3/29 – 12.1 “Development of the Cold War”

3/26 – 13.1 “Decline of the Soviet Union”

4/2 – Movie: 13 Days (Cuban Missile Crisis)

4/9 – Easter Vacation

4/16 – 15.2 “Conflict in the Middle East”

4/23 – 15.3 “The Challenge of Terrorism”

4/30 – 16.1 “Communist China”

5/7 – Transforming Beijing (pg. 716-719)

5/14 – 16.2 “Independent States in South and Southeast Asia”

5/21 - Film?

5/29 – Dead Week – Presentations?

6/4 – Finals Week

China Bubble EC

Monday, Oct. 17, 2011

What If the China Bubble Bursts?

By Ken Miller

What's the most important economic question in the world today? One contender would certainly be whether the euro will collapse. Another might be whether the U.S. will plunge into a double-dip recession. But a third, and possibly the most important over the long term, is whether China can find its way out of the biggest housing bubble ever created.


It may seem strange to Westerners, who hear so much about the rise of Asia and growing Chinese competitiveness. But like U.S. Republicans who try to "starve the beast" by cutting government spending, the Chinese Communist Party has been attempting to put a damper on the debt-fueled real estate boom that is at the heart of the nation's economic miracle. This is part of a deliberate attempt that is meant to rejigger the Chinese economy into one that relies more on a domestic service sector and less on manufacturing and exports. If, however, the party's efforts result in a precipitous drop in real estate values, multinational corporations whose revenue and earnings growth are tied to China could be hard hit. And the U.S. could be thrown back into recession. (See pictures of China's 90 years of communism.)


The world has to care about Chinese growth, since it is an important driver of the global economy. China contributed 19% of the world's economic growth in 2010, and that's expected to increase to 24% this year. China's growing strength is essential to both the U.S. and European recoveries.


While Washington has sweated through its partisan debates on budget balancing and economists have bickered over solutions to our low-growth and high-unemployment problems, the Chinese boom of the past several decades has blasted ahead without a glitch. Much of that boom is wrapped up in real estate. In the first six months of this year, Chinese investment in real estate was up 32.9% compared with the same period in 2010, and China's economy is expected to grow more than 9% this year, about equal to its average during the post — Deng Xiaoping era of "communism with Chinese characteristics."


The popular narrative is that China's rise from nowhere in 1978 to its position today as the world's second largest economy has been fueled by cheap labor. While this is one factor, cheap capital and land have been as important. Most Chinese, who are huge savers, have little choice but to put their money in bank accounts that pay interest lower than the rate of inflation; these funds are then channeled into state-owned enterprises whose capital expenditures create the factories and buildings on which the Chinese miracle has been built. (See pictures of China's cutting-edge architecture.)


But the Chinese are pretty smart about money. They see the fortunes the elites have made by buying land at bargain prices and developing it. Ordinary individuals cannot get in on the ground floor to reap the obscene profits made by well-connected officials who facilitate purchases from historical occupants, but they are permitted to invest in real estate at later stages of development, and their wealth grows every year. Anyone who's spent more than a day or two in China knows that real estate is a popular preoccupation. Apartment flipping is all the rage; real estate prices have tripled in the past five years.


The question is whether the building bubble — not only in housing but in commercial property as well — is about to burst. Everywhere you go in China, you see new airports and high-speed train lines under construction; see-through apartment buildings whose empty units loom unilluminated in the night; beautiful underutilized roads, bridges and tunnels; and newly risen ghost towns waiting for occupants. One such town, Kangbashi, in Inner Mongolia, has everything a city needs, including investors who have bought apartments on spec. Yet it remains unoccupied, as reported last year in this magazine. Why does China keep building? Because building creates jobs and wealth for those who are associated with all that development.


Right after Mao came to power in 1949, China experimented briefly with driving growth through internal consumption, but this led to a flight of capital and dependence on foreign borrowing that scared the leadership. The party decided to focus on production and exports fueled by state capital expenditure. The factories that churned out made-in-China goods and the infrastructure that supported the factories encouraged the building boom that has culminated in a glut of high-rises all over the Middle Kingdom. (See pictures of Chinese actors impersonating Chairman Mao Zedong.)


The problem today is that this model, which has worked so well for over three decades, is showing signs of fatigue. Factories that make things the world wants were built long ago (and factories in many other parts of Asia can now churn out goods more cheaply than China). Returns on investment have been declining.
Despite undrinkable water and unbreathable air in many parts of the country, the party continues to enjoy widespread support; its p.r. machine emphasizes its efforts to redress China's humiliation at the hands of the West in the 19th and 20th centuries. Even intellectuals who gripe about personal-freedom and civil rights issues seem to do so through a filter of sincere patriotism. Unfortunately, the strains caused by hell-bent growth are starting to show up everywhere. Mass protests of party abuses — often the taking of land without just compensation — have been rising so steadily that the government did not publish the number of them last year. At government facilities in many regions of the country, there have been explosions set off by citizens so disaffected that they don't care about the consequences.


Beijing knows it's time to change strategy. The party's latest five-year plan shows that it wants to shift away from the old export-and-building-boom model to one that relies more on domestic demand for goods and services. But as it is finding out, this is easier said than done.


One problem the authorities have run into is their inability to stop cheap capital from flowing into state-owned enterprises. These businesses use the money they borrow to invest directly in real estate or lend to others who do so. The business elites owe their management positions to the party, and they continue to arrange access to cheap capital, which allows them to grow their profits while improving their standing in the hierarchy. If the party's attempt to rein in the easy money flowing to state-owned enterprises results in a dramatic decline in property values, the outcome could be an earthquake in the Chinese financial system that would be felt in the U.S. (See what Asia can really teach America.)


In the past, loans made by state banks to big government-related businesses created a significant amount of bad debt that had to be written off. In 1998 and 2004 — 05, a total of about $500 billion was classified as nonperforming loans (which state officials transferred into special investment vehicles in an attempt to create the appearance of containing the problem). But because the state, which owns the biggest banks — and thus the people's savings — ultimately pays the price of the write-off, households bear the cost of the cleanup.
There are rumors around the country that another big round of write-offs is imminent. If Beijing is serious about moving to a consumption model, imposing the cost of these bad loans on citizens again will be a serious impediment to that goal. Household income as a percentage of GDP has been declining in China for almost a decade, and it's hard to see what the people are going to use to buy stuff, even if wages rise, if they have to keep paying for bailouts and can't earn anything on their savings. It is one thing for the government to lower taxes on consumer goods, as it recently did, but unless it can reverse the decline in household income as a percentage of GDP, the people won't spend.


Another problem Beijing has in moving to a new growth model is local and provincial governments' addiction to revenue from land sales. According to the Ministry of Finance, land sales totaled $500 billion in 2010, more than double the amount of the previous year. Because provincial officials are promoted on the basis of their GDP-growth figures and because land sales are an important part of local revenue, it's difficult to curb the enthusiasm of local officials for project development.


Of course, nothing is ever a bubble until it bursts. Even an empty city is not a convincing warning to those who remember that it took Shanghai many years to grow into the now booming Pudong. Although some of these beautiful, ubiquitous new bridges, roads, tunnels and buildings may be underused today, maybe they will prove to be just the catalyst needed to keep the economy driving forward when demand catches up, as the optimists argue. (See pictures of China's high-speed rail.)


But if the bubble pops, it will have serious consequences in the U.S. America sold $92 billion in goods and services to China last year. If China succeeds in moving away from its model of cheap land and cheap capital and makes a smooth transition to an economy based more on domestic demand, hallelujah. But if Chinese land prices plummet, there will be less demand for raw materials and a steep decline in world commodity markets and global trade in general.


That could very easily lead to even higher unemployment in the West. The U.S. economy is already in the strange position of having cash-rich companies that are not spending or hiring. Imagine how much less inclined they will be to do so if they are frightened by a Chinese economic slowdown. And the U.S. government, already shedding jobs in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, will be in no position to ride to the rescue.


Senior Chinese officials are secretly quite worried about a hard landing. Many observers say a sharp economic decline won't be permitted to happen before the change of leadership in 2012. But the Chinese stock market was not supposed to be allowed to crash in the run-up to the 2008 Beijing Olympics, and it did. The Chinese Communist Party is trying to engineer a delicate redefinition of how its economic model will work going forward. The last thing it needs right now is U.S. sanctions against Chinese imports. A more constructive approach, one that recognizes that the U.S. and China are in the same global economic boat together, would be for the U.S. to incentivize the export of technologies aimed at helping China grow its service sector. The U.S. needs an economically stable and growing China to buy not just its IOUs but also its goods and services.


Miller is managing partner of Keylink Capital International, a strategic financial adviser on international transactions

Extra Credit Questions

1. What are the major problems affecting China’s economy today?  (2 points)
2. If you were an investor, would you seek to invest in China’s housing market today?  Why or why not?  (1 point)
3. Why doesn’t Kangbashi, Inner Mongolia, have any citizens?  Would you live there if nobody else did?  (1 point)
4. How could a China slowdown affect the United States?  (2 points)
5. Which has been more important in fueling China’s growing economy: cheap labor or cheap land?  Explain (there is no right answer here, just back up your answer with quotes from the passage).  (2 points)
6. How is China’s environment?  Is air pollution and water pollution getting better or worse?  How does that affect political stability (i.e. the number of people protesting) (2 points)

Speaker Series at HSU

For those of you who are interested:
http://humboldt.edu/envcomm/speaker_series

Homework Etc.

Hi All, I hope you all had a great Homecoming Week and Weekend.  Just a reminder that the Section 2 review in Chapter 3 is due on Monday.  You need to complete #1, 2, 3, 5, and 6.

Also, I would recommend making flashcard (or other memory-sticking techniques) for the following terms for the exam (from section 1, 2, and 3)

Third Estate
bourgeoisie
Louis XVI
Tennis Court Oath
Declaration of the Rights of Man and the Citizen
Geogre Danton
Jean-Paul Marat
Maximilien Robespierre
National Convention
Girondins
Jacobins
Committee for Public Safety
The Great Terror
The Directory
Napoleon Bonaparte
Civil Code or Napoleonic Code
Waterloo
Duke of Wellington

I would also pay particular attention to the maps on pgs. 216 and 233.

Answers for Section 1
1.  Answers are in the glossary
2.  Louis XVI (pg. 213), Tennis Court Oath (p. 214), Declaration (p. 215), Olympe de Gouge (p. 215)
3.  See Chapter maps
4.  It was part of the old order that was being torn down.
5.  right to liberty, property, security; freedom from oppression; equal rights for all men; equal access to public office; equal, fair taxation.

Chapter Three Review

The French Revolution and Napoleon – Chapter 3 Review

Section 1: The French Revolution Begins

Big Question: Why have people in the past struggled for their rights?

Main Ideas

§       The Third Estate, the vast majority of the people, were heavily taxed and discontented.

§       Meeting as a separate assembly made the Third Estate votes count as much as those of the clergy and nobles.

§       The National Assembly set up a limited monarchy in the Constitution of 1791

Chapter Objectives

§       Describe the social inequalities that contributed to the French Revolution

§       Describe the economic problems that contributed to the French Revolution.

§       Understand why certain groups opposed the new order.

HW: pg. 218 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) – due 10/5 (Wed)

Section 2: Radical Revolution and Reaction

Big Question: What is the difference between asserting a claim to human rights and simply trying to gain more power? 

Main Ideas

§       Some European countries threatened to invade France to keep the king in power.

§       The Committee of Public Safety executed thousands who opposed the government.

§       The revolutionary army defended France against invasion.

§       The Directory set up in 1795 was not able to solve the government’s economic problems.

Chapter Objectives

§        Identify the reasons why a European coalition fought together against France.

§       Explain why the Reign of Terror occurred.

§       Explain how Napoleon Bonaparte was able to seize power during a coup d’état.

HW: pg. 225 (1, 2, 3, 5, 6) – due 10/10 (Mon)

Section 3: The Age of Napoleon

Big Question: What are the ways that governments violate the rights of their citizens? 

Main Ideas

§       Napoleon overthrew the Directory and eventually held total power.

§       Napoleon established a single law code that recognized the equality of all citizens.

§       Napoleon established an empire covering much of Europe.

§       Nationalism spread by France led to opposition to French rule in other countries.

§       After major losses in Russia and Austria, Napoleon met defeat at Waterloo and was exiled.

Chapter Objectives

§       Describe Napoleon’s rise to power and his victories.

§       Explain why Napoleon was ultimately defeated.

§       Explain how the spread of nationalism led to French defeats

HW: pg. 235 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) – due 10/13 (Thurs)

Chapter Review pg. 238 (16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23, 25, 33, 34, 35, 36) – due 10/18 (Tues – Test Day) (extra credit is #28, 29)

Mesquita on the Daily Show

Here is the link.  Check it out:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-september-28-2009/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita

Instructions for Academic Writing

Analyze           Break the subject (an object, event, or concept) down into parts, and describe the various parts. 

Compare        Show how two things are similar as well as different; include details or examples

Contrast         Show how two things are different; including details or examples

Critique          Point out both the good and bad points of something

Define            Give an accurate meaning of a term with enough detail to show that you really understand it

Describe        Write about the subject so the reader can easily visualize it; tell how it looks or happened, including how, who, where, and why

Diagram          Make a drawing of something, and label its parts

Discuss          Give a complete and detailed answer, including important characteristics and main points

Evaluate         Give your opinion of the value of the subject; discuss its good and bad points, strengths and weaknesses

Explain           Give the meaning of something; give facts and details that make the idea easy to understand. 

Illustrate         Make the point or idea clear by giving examples

Interpret         Tell about the importance of the subject.  Explain the results or the effects of something. 

Justify             Give good reasons that support a specific decision, action, or event. 

Outline           Make an organized listing of the important points of a subject

Persuade       Give good reasons in order to get someone to either do or believe something; try to appeal to both the reader’s feelings and mind

Prove             Show that something is true by giving facts or logical reasons

Relate             Show how things are alike or connected. 

State               Give the main points in brief, clear form

Summarize     Briefly cover the main points; use a paragraph form

Trace              Tell about an event of process in chronological order

49th Street and Other Stories

Hi All,
In case you're bored and want a bit of entertainment tonight, you can check out the new 49th Street and Other Stories dance video starring my sister, Michelle Joy, at the following web address:
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/soundingline/49th-street-and-other-stories-a-new-dance-play

Test Tomorrow

The test has been written.  It is significantly different from the last test, in that it only has five identification questions (3 points each) and two essays (30 points each).  You will be able to choose two essay topics from a list of three.

Daily Show with Mitch Daniels

Hi All,
Thanks for your hard work.  I encourage you to watch the Daily Show with Mitch Daniels, the Republican governor from Indiana.  Here's the link:
http://www.hulu.com/watch/281200/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-wed-sep-21-2011

I actually met Mr. Daniels at an Asia Society & AmCham Shanghai conference in September 2009 in Shanghai. He is conservative who isn't afraid of speaking up for his principles.  If that is something we are going to learn how to do, it is to our benefit to watch how others perform in those difficult circumstances.

The Importance of History Education

The Education Our Economy Needs

We lag in science, but students' historical illiteracy hurts our politics and our businesses.

By NORM AUGUSTINE

In the spirit of the new school year, here's a quiz for readers: In which of the following subjects is the performance of American 12th-graders the worst? a) science, b) economics, c) history, or d) math?

With all the talk of America's very real weaknesses in the STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering and math), you might be surprised to learn that the answer—according to the federal government's National Assessment of Educational Progress—is neither science nor math. And despite what might be suggested by the number of underwater home loans, high-school seniors actually fare best in economics.

Which leaves history as the answer, the subject in which students perform the most poorly. It's a result that puts American employers and America's freedoms in a worrisome spot.

But why should a C grade in history matter to the C-suite? After all, if a leader can make the numbers, does it really matter if he or she can recite the birthdates of all the presidents?

Well, it's not primarily the memorized facts that have current and former CEOs like me concerned. It's the other things that subjects like history impart: critical thinking, research skills, and the ability to communicate clearly and cogently. Such skills are certainly important for those at the top, but in today's economy they are fundamental to performance at nearly every level. A failing grade in history suggests that students are not only failing to comprehend our nation's story and that of our world, but also failing to develop skills that are crucial to employment across sectors. Having traveled in 109 countries in this global economy, I have developed a considerable appreciation for the importance of knowing a country's history and politics.

Enlarge Image

Associated Press

The good news is that a candidate who demonstrates capabilities in critical thinking, creative problem-solving and communication has a far greater chance of being employed today than his or her counterpart without those skills. The better news is these are not skills that only a graduate education or a stint at McKinsey can confer. They are competencies that our public elementary and high schools can and should be developing through subjects like history.

Far more than simply conveying the story of a country or civilization, an education in history can create critical thinkers who can digest, analyze and synthesize information and articulate their findings. These are skills needed across a broad range of subjects and disciplines.

In fact, students who are exposed to more modern methods of history education—where critical thinking and research are emphasized—tend to perform better in math and science. As a case in point, students who participate in National History Day—actually a year-long program that gets students in grades 6-12 doing historical research—consistently outperform their peers on state standardized tests, not only in social studies but in science and math as well.

In my position as CEO of a firm employing over 80,000 engineers, I can testify that most were excellent engineers—but the factor that most distinguished those who advanced in the organization was the ability to think broadly and read and write clearly.

Now is a time to re-establish history's importance in American education. We need to take this opportunity to ensure that today's history teachers are teaching in a more enlightened fashion, going beyond rote memorization and requiring students to conduct original research, develop a viewpoint and defend it.

If the American economy is to recover from the Great Recession—and I believe it can—it will be because of a ready supply of workers with the critical thinking, creative problem-solving, technological and communications skills needed to fuel productivity and growth. The subject of history is an important part of that foundation.

Mr. Augustine, a former under secretary of the Army, is the retired chairman and CEO of Lockheed Martin.

US International Political News

Got some good news from the Brooking Institute near Dupont Circle in Washington, D.C.  It is a non-partisan thinktank where members of both political parties often go to to give and receive expert advice from scholars and former administration officials.  Thinktanks are an important part of the Washington establishment, and Brookings is one of the most respected one of them all.

Meet the Press at Brookings - 9/11 and its Impacts Ten Years On
America's Political Dysfuctionalism Impacting its Position as the World's Sole Superpower?
Happiness Economics
US Political Dysfunction and its Impact on Asia
The PLA, the Pentagon, and Chinese Military Modernization

Happy Reading!

Dynasties of China

Here is cool video that Ms. Padilla sent me.  You will find it to be extremely entertaining and well as educational.  One of the big questions scholars have continued to ask about concerns China's reunification.  Despite periods when China was divided into smaller parts, political leaders have almost always succeeded in reuniting the entire country, starting with the Qin Dynasty.  Contrast that with Europe, which has only been united for very short periods of time.  Given that, its easy to see how such a line of questioning came about.

Here is your video:

1.8 million Years

Here is an article on how early humans used advanced tools.  It is from the Earth Institute at Columbia University.  Its important to keep things like this in perspective, especially as we begin talking about the last 350 years of human history.  We have clearly been here much longer than just 350 years... Enjoy!

Humans Shaped Stone Axes 1.8 Million Years Ago, Study Says

Evidence Pushes Advanced Tool-Making Methods Back in Time

2011-09-01

A new study suggests that Homo erectus, a precursor to modern humans, was using advanced tool-making methods in East Africa 1.8 million years ago, at least 300,000 years earlier than previously thought. The study, published this week in Nature, raises new questions about where these tall and slender early humans originated and how they developed sophisticated tool-making technology.

Early humans were using stone hand axes as far back as 1.8 million years ago. Credit: Pierre-Jean Texier, National Center of Scientific Research, France.

Homo erectus appeared about 2 million years ago, and ranged across Asia and Africa before hitting a possible evolutionary dead-end, about 70,000 years ago. Some researchers thinkHomo erectus evolved in East Africa, where many of the oldest fossils have been found, but the discovery in the 1990s of equally old Homo erectus fossils in the country of Georgia has led others to suggest an Asian origin.  The study in Nature does not resolve the debate but adds new complexity. At 1.8 million years ago, Homo erectus in Dmanisi, Georgia was still using simple chopping tools while in West Turkana, Kenya, according to the study, the population had developed hand axes, picks and other innovative tools that anthropologists call “Acheulian.”

“The Acheulian tools represent a great technological leap,” said study co-authorDennis Kent, a geologist with joint appointments at Rutgers University and Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “Why didn’t Homo erectus take these tools with them to Asia?”

In the summer of 2007, a team of French and American researchers traveled to Kenya’s Lake Turkana in Africa’s Great Rift Valley, where earth’s plates are tearing apart and some of the earliest humans first appear. Anthropologist Richard Leakey’s famous find--Turkana Boy, a Homo erectus teenager who lived about 1.5 million years ago—was excavated on Lake Turkana’s western shore and is still the most complete early human skeleton found so far.

Study co-author, Craig Feibel, is among the team of researchers that returned in 2007 to West Turkana to put dates on hand axes excavated earlier. Credit: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

Six miles from Turkana Boy, the researchers headed for Kokiselei, an archeological site where both Acheulian and simpler “Oldowan” tools had been found earlier. Their goal: to establish the age of the tools by dating the surrounding sediments. Past flooding in the area had left behind layers of silt and clay that hardened into mudstone, preserving the direction of Earth’s magnetic field at the time in the stone’s magnetite grains.  The researchers chiseled away chunks of the mudstone at Kokiselei to later analyze the periodic polarity reversals and come up with ages. At Lamont-Doherty’s Paleomagnetics Lab, they compared the magnetic intervals with other stratigraphic records to date the archeological site to 1.76 million years.

“We suspected that Kokiselei was a rather old site, but I was taken aback when I realized that the geological data indicated it was the oldest Acheulian site in the world,” said the study’s lead author, Christopher Lepre, a geologist who also has joint appointments at Rutgers and Lamont-Doherty. The oldest Acheulian tools previously identified appear in Konso, Ethiopia, about 1.4 million years ago, and India, between 1.5 million and 1 million years ago.

Tools made by early humans were found at Kokiselei, Kenya, in Lake Turkana's ancient shoreline sediments pictured above. Credit: Lamont-Doherty.

The Acheulian tools at Kokiselei were found just above a sediment layer associated with a polarity interval called the “Olduvai Subchron.” It is named after Tanzania’s Olduvai Gorge, where pioneering work in the 1930s by Leakey’s parents, Louis and Mary, uncovered a goldmine of early human fossils. In a study in Earth and Planetary Science Letters last year, Lepre and Kent found that a well-preserved Homo erectusskull found on east side of Lake Turkana, at Koobi Fora Ridge, also sat above the Olduvai Subchron interval, making the skull and Acheulian tools in West Turkana about the same age.

Anthropologists have yet to find an Acheulian hand axe gripped in a Homo erectus fist but most credit Homo erectus with developing the technology. Acheulian tools were larger and heavier than the pebble-choppers used previously and also had chiseled edges that would have helped Homo erectus butcher elephants and other scavenged game left behind by larger predators or even have allowed the early humans to hunt such prey themselves. “You could whack away at a joint and dislodge the shoulder from the arm, leg or hip,” said Eric Delson, a paleoanthropologist at CUNY’s Lehman College who was not involved in the study. “The tools allowed you to cut open and dismember an animal to eat it.”

The skill involved in manufacturing such a tool suggests that Homo erectus was dexterous and able to think ahead. At Kokiselei, the presence of both tool-making methods—Oldowan and Acheulian-- could mean that Homo erectus and its more primitive cousin Homo habilis lived at the same time, with Homo erectus carrying the Acheulian technology to the Mediterranean region about a million years ago, the study authors hypothesize.  Delson wonders if Homo erectus may have migrated to Dmanisi, Georgia, but “lost” the Acheulian technology on the way.

The East African landscape that Homo erectus walked from about 2 million to 1.5 million years ago was becoming progressively drier, with savanna grasslands spreading in response to changes in the monsoon rains. “We need to understand also the ancient environment because this gives us an insight into how processes of evolution work—how shifts in early human biology and behavior are potentially caused by changes in the climate, vegetation or animal life that is particular to a habitat,” said Lepre. The team is currently excavating a more than 2 million year old site in Kenya to learn more about the early Oldowan period.

The study’s other authors are: Helen Roche, Sonia Harmand, Jean-Philippe Brugal, Pierre-Jean Texier and Arnaud Lenoble at France’s National Center of Scientific Research; Rhonda Quinn, Seton Hall University; and Craig Feibel, Rutgers University.

Development Lessons from Japan and Mexico

By TOM ORLIK

Is China the next Japan or the next Mexico?

One worry for investors is that China will go the same way as Japan. Like Japan once did, China is playing a game of rapid catch-up with the U.S., with growth in output driven by high levels of investment and exports. As also happened in Japan, that growth model has led to the buildup of stress points in the domestic economy: a bubble in the real-estate sector and bad loans in the banks.

The crucial difference is the level of development. Taking 1990 as the date when Japan's growth faltered, gross domestic product per capita, measured in purchasing-power-parity terms, had already reached more than 90% of the level in the U.S. Capacity to grow by catching up was all but exhausted. The real-estate bubble burst when Japan's urbanization rate was above 60%. In an already predominantly urban society, fundamental demand wasn't strong enough to pick up the pieces.

In 2009, China's GDP per capita was 18% of that in the U.S., and the urbanization rate had just touched 50%. The contrast is clear.

Significant scope to grow by catching up to the world economic leader remains. If the ghosts towns that loom large in the bear case against China are a genuine problem, continued urbanization means fundamental demand should remain strong enough for China to grow through it at some point. A Japan-style lost decade doesn't appear to be in China's immediate future.

A more realistic threat is that China is the next Mexico. Mexico grew through exporting low-value-added goods to the U.S, without paying too much attention to niceties like improving human capital and developing an efficient financial system. But as lower-cost competitors entered the world economy, a weak education system and inefficient allocation of capital started to act as constraints on growth. China took export market share and growth stalled. Mexico's GDP per capita languishes at 28% of that of the U.S., a lower level than in the early 1980s.

Bloomberg News

Reform of the financial system has fallen by the wayside in China. Above, Chinese flags fly on boats in the Bohai New Area port zone of Cangzhou, Hebei Province, China.

Here, China might have more to worry about. Wages in the low-skill manufacturing sector are rising fast. On their current trajectory, they will double in the next five years. Low-skill jobs have already started to migrate elsewhere and will continue to do so. Public spending on education, at 3% of GDP in 2009, compares unfavorably to an average of 5% in the grouping of upper-middle-income countries to which China aspires. Reform of the financial system has fallen by the wayside as banks continue to funnel savings to low-yielding state-sponsored projects. (see Red Capitalism by Carl Walter)

To be sure, China's record of economic management is much stronger than Mexico's. And the government talks a good game about the importance of reform. But words have so far not been matched by action. In August this year, a move to bulldoze schools that provided education to the children of migrant workers in Beijing seemed emblematic of policy makers' priorities. With education part of the key to avoiding the middle-income trap, it is bulldozed schools, rather than ghost towns of empty apartments, that are the bigger threat to China's development.

Write to Tom Orlik at Thomas.orlik@wsj.com

Revolution & Enlightenment - Chapter 2

Hello,
I only received a few copies of the Chapter 1 review today before the test.  For those of you that didn't turn it in, each day it is late it will be marked down.

Furthermore, if you need to take the exam, I will be available after school tomorrow or during lunch on Thursday.

Here is the outline for Chapter 2, which I will pass out tomorrow in-class.  It includes homework questions

Revolution and Enlightenment – Chapter 2 Review

Section 1: The Glorious Revolution

Big Question: What does religious freedom mean to you?  How do you take advantage of this freedom?

Main Ideas

§       Absolutist rulers in Europe asserted that their power came from God, but in England Parliament expanded its power

§       Civil war broke out in England I 1642 and in 1649 Parliament proved victorious over the king

§       England’s Glorious Revolution created a constitutional, or limited, monarchy.

Chapter Standards

§       Define absolutism and explain the basis for the power of absolutist monarchs.

§       Identify the causes of the Glorious Revolution in England

§       Explain the effect of the Glorious Revolution on the principle of representative government

HW: pg. 182 (1, 2, 3, 5) – due 9/16

Section 2: The Enlightenment

Big Question: How does a belief in the equality of all people logically lead to certain forms of government?  Is democracy the only logical outcome of universal equality? 

Main Ideas

§       The philosophers believed that the methods of scientists could eliminate unjust laws and created a better society.

§       The philosophers’’ belief in reason promoted the early social sciences of economic and political science

§       Enlightenment ideas spread through salons and an expansion of the reading public

Chapter Standards

§       Explain how the ideas of the Scientific Revolution led to the Enlightenment

§       Describe the tenets of Enlightenment thought

§       Give details about how scientific methods were applied to the social sciences

§       Recount the reasons for the spread of Enlightenment thought

HW: pg. 189 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7) – due 9/20

Section 3: The American Revolution

Big Question: What is the relationship between the struggle for individual rights and the struggle for self-government?  Is it a cause-effect relationship or some other kind of relationship?

Main Ideas

§       In theory the British governed the colonies but colonial legislatures often acted independently

§       After the French and Indian War, new taxes angered colonists

§       Drawing on the ideas of John Locke, the Declaration of Independence severed the colonies’ ties with the British Crown

§       Americans won their independence from Britain in 1783 and later ratified a constitution that spelled out the limits of government

§       Americans worked to balance individual freedom with a united central government.

Chapter Standards

§       Identify the economic causes of the American Revolution

§       Link Enlightenment ideals to the philosophical basis of the American Revolution

§       Describe how the Constitution of the United States was created

HW: pg. 197 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) – due 9/22

Chapter Review pg. 200-201 (1-10, 23-30, 32-39) – due 9/27 (TEST DAY)